Water Erosion Risk Assessment for Conservation Planning in the East Hararghe Zone, Ethiopia

Water erosion is accelerating soil loss rates in the East Hararghe Zone due to inappropriate human activities and their complex intertwined interactions with natural factors, particularly sensitive agroecosystems that lack water conservation (SWC) measures. Although these dynamic processes cause prolonged impacts, a comprehensive assessment of risk has not yet been undertaken at zonal level. To bridge this gap, we employed revised universal equation (RUSLE) prediction model, along remote sensing geographic information systems (GIS), estimate annual rates, analyze temporal-spatial patterns risk, evaluate potential standard practices reduce croplands. Total (in millions tonnes/year; Mt yr−1) was estimated be 9 1990, 14 2000, 12 2010, 11 2020, average 33, 50, 44, 39 t ha−1 yr−1, respectively. This suggests an overall 18% increase from 1990 2020. Over 75% area showed tolerable rate (<10 low susceptibility risk. A mountainous landscape northwest presents extremely high (>120 yr−1), which accounts for more than 80% loss, making SWC planning priority. Analysis land-use land-cover change (LULCC) confirmed higher LULCC involved conversion croplands, 36.4 yr−1 (1990–2000), 70 (2000–2010), 36 (2010–2020). The results have further revealed implementing supportive such as terracing, stripping, contouring could by approximately 87%, 65%, 29%, respectively, compared baseline model’s prediction. Therefore, rigorous cost–benefit analysis essential design implement optimal location-specific maximize investment returns efforts ecological restoration. However, acknowledge limitations study, associated empirical model does account all forms erosion, well reliance mainly on secondary data, may affect accuracy predicted outcomes.